dimanche 27 mars 2011

UNDERSTANDING THE IVORIAN POST ELECTION CRISIS

The two rounds of presidential elections held in October and November 
2010 in Côte d'Ivoire are the result of a long political, economic and 
administrative process that federated any meaningful political forces 
of that country. 
As a reminder, it must be said that the constitutional mandate of 
Laurent Gbagbo expired in October 2005 (five years after his election 
in 2000 he described himself as disastrous). Constitutionally, Laurent 
Gbagbo is illegal since late October 2005, but failing to hold 
elections since then, he could save his seat in the wake of numerous 
political arrangements and UN resolutions until 2010 elections. 
The recent elections in Côte d'Ivoire are according to many observers, 
the elections the most expensive in the world with an electoral mass 
of 5 million people for a country of 20 million people. 
The willingness of the Prime Minister Guillaume Soro to organize fair, 
free and transparent elections and above all his commitment to the 
various candidates to agree on the outcome of these elections drove 
these elections to be postponed six times in 3 years. This means that 
all parties agreed on the feasibility and transparent conditions for 
the 2010 elections. 
On the security front, the Integrated Command Centre (ICC), a merger 
of the two forces (FDS and FAFN) who fought during the 2002 crisis was 
deployed throughout the country to avoid violence. The ICC report at 
the end of the elections showed that things went well and areas where 
disturbances have occurred are areas favorable to candidate Laurent 
Gbagbo that have prevented voters from voting for his opponent. 
Administratively, the candidate-President Laurent Gbagbo had appointed 
prefects and sub-prefects in areas formerly controlled by rebels. In 
their reports at the end of election day, they found the electoral 
process satisfactory in these areas. More than 4000 international 
observers were accredited to Côte d'Ivoire to monitor the elections. 
During the second round of voting, each candidate had two 
representatives in each polling station. Each representative was able 
to sign the minutes on behalf of his candidate. It is the sum of the 
results recorded on the minutes that give the overall outcome of the 
presidential election. A copy of the minutes of each polling station 
(20000 office) was given to each candidate, the Prime Minister, the 
President of Burkina Faso who was the facilitator in the Ivorian 
crisis, the President of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) , 
the President of the Constitutional Court and the United Nations 
Representative in Côte d'Ivoire who certifies the election. 
The arrangements for organizing the elections made it almost 
impossible any attempt at fraud, all observers agree on the 
transparency of the poll. Based on the records obtained, the results 
of the second round of elections were known since the night of 
November 28, 2010. 
Laurent Gbagbo was sure of his victory because he had all the 
sponsored polls giving him the winner. Seeing the situation turning 
against him, Laurent Gbagbo prevents the announcement of provisional 
results by the IEC. Then he ordered the President of his political 
party to file a petition with the Constitutional Council (headed by 
his friend and member of his political party) to chop the votes of 9 
regions of northern Côte d'Ivoire natural HQ of the candidate Alassane 
Ouattara. These two actions (IEC prevent announce the results and the 
filing of petitions with the Constitutional Court) are not accidental. 
Gbagbo then intended to deport the debate on a juridical plan. 
Inspired by a provision of the Election Code which states that the IEC 
has three days to send the minutes to the Constitutional Council, 
Gbagbo believed that if the IEC did not proclaim the results in three 
days, then the Constitutional Council headed by his friend, would take 
matters in hand and would overturn the results. That is what the 
Constitutional Council did at a moment the IEC had already given Mr. 
Alassane Ouattara winner with 54.1% of votes. Gbagbo has misread the 
law because the Constitutional Council cannot change the results of a 
vote given by the IEC. It can validate or invalidate those results. If 
invalid, then we repeat the elections. So by changing the results to 
give Gbagbo winner, the Constitutional Council was doing wrong. UNOCI 
that has the role of certification, recognized the results announced 
by the IEC and thus validated the victory of Mr. Ouattara. 
Against all odds, Gbagbo got invested President of the Republic by the 
Constitutional Court when he is denied across the world. Today, all 
countries of the UN recognize Mr. Ouattara as the President of Côte 
d'Ivoire. 
Peace-loving, Mr. Ouattara has repeatedly demanded the withdrawal of 
Gbagbo. Faced with his stubbornness, Mr. Ouattara ordered targeted 
sanctions against Gbagbo and his clan. Thinking that financial 
asphyxia would cause Gbagbo to yield, he started making fake bank 
notes he injects into the market through the channel of foreign banks 
he has unilaterally nationalized. The Ivorian economy collapses. 
Having lost the diplomatic and financial battle, Gbagbo launched into 
the army crackdown. Any peaceful march is repressed in blood. From 
December to now, more than 800 people mostly children, women and 
unarmed civilians were massacred by militias and mercenaries of 
Laurent Gbagbo. Shells are launched by random on homes in areas that 
do not support Gbagbo. Foreigners are dispossessed of their properties 
because according to his supporters, the election of Mr. Ouattara is 
an international plot against Gbagbo. 
And every day that passes gradually pushes the Ivory Coast at the edge 
of the precipice. Gbagbo makes assassinate religious leaders to 
encourage people to deport the conflict on religious grounds. Abidjan 
is empty of its inhabitants fleeing reprisals of Gbagbo camp. Over one 
million people are now displaced. Most of them took refuge in the 
north where Gbagbo has deprived people of water and electricity. A 
humanitarian disaster is not far in these areas with cholera that is 
already reported.

Copyrigth Alain Lobognon

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